Predictions, Perspective, and AI
To kick off 2024, Ad Age assembled the predictions of 80 ad industry executives from agencies, tech platforms, production companies, and the brands that support them all.
What it revealed is an industry hive mind dominated by a near consensus that AI is going to continue to change everything about the business.
No argument here.
But there were also sharp, divergent thoughts. Like Rahul Titus' riff on employee advocacy. Or Ed Starr on health and wellness. But for me the predictions that had the most heat, the most urgency had to do with the creator space. Examples include: Erin Amend or visual effects creators, Brian Bermer on audio ad creation with creators, Permele Doyle on social commerce. They all signaled immediate disruption, as brands go direct to talent that resonates with the audience and bypasses many of the traditional marketing layers along the way. This is happening now.
This got me thinking about how we prioritize how we think about the things that are changing models for how we work.
Now, I tend to think that AI will change more than it won't—at least some of it for the better. But when I read things like the prediction list, I still find myself wondering whether we're losing perspective.
For fun, I thought I'd ask a couple AIs what they think of this bullish case for their kind. After all, they should be able to bring a wealth of perspective to the forecasts, calling b.s. or at least throwing some cold water.
Turns out that both ChatGPT and Claude were very skeptical about the degree of bullishness. (A not insignificant caveat: with the current state of gen AI, this is more regurgitation of existing text out in the world than real intelligence or analysis. Nevertheless…)
ChatGPT called out a few fallacies underlying the predictions, including:
Overreliance on AI for Creativity
Underestimating the Human Touch in Customer Interactions
Assuming Linear Progress in AI Developments
Ignoring Ethical and Privacy Concerns
Claude was similarly skeptical about AI-enhanced content creation. "This seems very optimistic given AI's current capabilities. While AI tools will likely advance, fully AI-generated creative content at scale is probably still a ways off."
So where does that leave us if the AIs themselves are telling us we're over-hyping AI? Should we spend less time thinking about not fully proven tech amidst economic, cultural, and political upheaval? Or is this just a high-tech case of species-level gaslighting? "How to Serve Humans" as rewritten by an LLM.
For me, the answer is something like: Appreciate the potential, be open, and take steps to prepare. AI isn't necessarily overhyped; it's just often hyped in the wrong way. At the bare minimum, we should probably transpose Pascal's pragmatic argument about religion. Sure we don't know for certain whether AI will be our new overlord, but better to play it safe than sorry.
What we can't do is lose sight of the fact that many, many forces are changing our business, like creators. Then there's the whole overlap of creators and AI, which...well... that's a whole different article.
(Crazy times! Reach out if you're interested in help navigating all the changes. )